NINO4 #22
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0.00000273939 :offset: -0.00056493178 :mA: pareto-based , inversely weighted with harmonic
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RESPONSE FILE
Aligned relatively quickly
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Take the previous and stretch to all
Add 6 more harmonics to nino4-sym-9d-1890-1960-paretoWOWd-23456 Note how the modulo of the forcing faintly but obviously tracks
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All NINO4, continuation from last
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scratch using pareto option, 1+2, and then 1 to 6
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Antisymmetric semiannual../io/restore nino4-antisym-9d-1982-1984high
Interesting how the peaks retained
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From scratch, started NM=2, NH=2 harmonics using Pareto
A bit more -0.00000121139 :offset: |
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Slow LTE
Longer periods 18.6, 9.3, 4.4 were multiplied in amplitude by 10 or more to prime the fit
Pareto on NM=2, NH=2, stiff so tidal factors don't change much
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mix symm and anti-symmetric
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from scratch
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1920-1940
Checked with ZC=zero-crossing
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Excluded 1964 to 1970, allowed tidal factor delta
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AMO Tidal Factors Locked to NINO4, not quite dLOD, 0.99997
PDO Tidal Factors Locked to NINO4
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Overfitting on included regions by varying from dLOD calibration
The forcing is not that different from NINO4, implying the nonlinear modulation can't be too excessive. The SOI gives an idea of data uncertainties, particularly prior to 1875. Note that the model exposes the peaks shown by SOI at Darwin. Comparison of forcing to perfectly calibrated forcing |
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Using small window random walk, 3-5-7 harmonics
Same for SOI (Darwin)
Dual Interval NINO4
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Parallel harmonic added to NINO4
SOI
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SOIseveral hours
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Set of harmonics
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Perfect dLOD alignment 0.99999999732:dLOD:
../io/backup nino4-p808-1875-1932 |
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using Sin(x) as an activation function instead of tanh. cor(y,yOut) 0.7469967f0 cor(y0,d0) 0.2932289f0 Out-Of-BandN0 = 1800 y0=Vector{Float32}(df[N:N0,3]) cor(y0,d0) plot(x0, d0, seriestype=:scatter, label="True") |
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twice the fundamental
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EDIT: source https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino4.long.anom.data
from dLOD
dLOD3

all dLOD

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