Releasing the adaptive power of human systems
Complexity for resilience engineering refers to networks with increasingly extensive and hidden interdependencies. (26:10)
There's always more than one perspective. (27:13)
The view from any single point of observation simultaenously reveals and obscures. (27:31)
There is a trade-off between building resilience and pursuing optimality. (1:09:02)
We're interested in understanding the rules of the adaptive universe and using those to engineer in resilience, to find ways to balance pressure to be optimal and the need to be resilient. (1:10:07)
- emerging comprehensive account of complex adaptive systems that serve human purposes
- technical foundations emerging
- multi-role multi-eschleons network (tangled layer network) with
- extensive, hidden interdependenceis
- confront surprises that challenge boundaries
Setting: Operating in a network with extensive, hidden interdependencies Antagonist: linear thinking Story: escaping & failing to escape simplifications Driver: surprises and cascades Tensions: Dramatic failures in brittle systems Dead ends: Unintended consequences Hope: where people stretch to outmaneuver complexity Forward: graceful extensibility and sustained adaptability
NASA in a changing evnrionment under performance demands and resources pressures:
- drive down the cost of launch
- shorter, aggressive mission schedules
- new partners & relatinoships
- new roles
- skill erosion
- heightened public interest
Risk, therebfore, bcomes the "fourth dimension" of project management-treated equally as important as cost and schedule.
A. Adapative capacity exists before disrupting events call upon that capacity (it is a potential for future adaptive action)
B. One assesses (observes/models/measures) adaptive capacity through its exercise in the anticipation and reaction to past disruptions.
(A) means that the resources that support the potential, prior to visible disrupting events, may not be seen at all since they are not used; or if seen, they will be seen as excess capacity since it is not in use.
(This is in a paper that I've read)
- Rebound from trautmatic event (begs the question)
- Robust expand base adaptive capacity to handle more, well-modeled disruptions (wastes a word, "robustness"). We fold this into optimality.
- Graceful extensibility (vs. brittleness)
- Sustained adptability
empirical, general patterns from collecting, sharing, analyzing stories of resilience and brittleness in action
cycles of [co-]adaptive reverberations across networks and scales
assess where and how system is brittle/resilient in the face of surprise risk of 3 patterns of adaptive breakdown
project how change produces unintended consequences
how to engineer in graceful extensibility and sustained adaptability given trade-offs and change?
charting how changes reverberate through multi-role, multi-eschelon networks each response to change by some unit triggers adaptive responses across other units
stalls <-- reverb --> florescence
Reverberation across a tangled layered network of interdependent units: the degree that changes in one area tend to recruit or open up beneficial changes in many other aspects of the network; which opens new opportunities across the network, ...